We Can’t Turn Back the Clock: Protectionism and Populism in an Age of Turbulence
U.S. President Donald Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announcing their reciprocal tariff plan at the White House Rose Garden
Credit: FMT
On the first day of his second term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border, citing concerns with an influx of narcotics and illegal immigrants. Two weeks later, he slapped historically unprecedented tariffs on imports from longtime allies Canada and Mexico. Then, he threatened to impose duties on European imports. Later, he imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum. On April 2nd, his administration unveiled a sweeping tariff plan that imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all imports and slapped steep regional tariffs of up to 50% for countries like Vietnam. The targeted countries then threatened their own slate of retaliatory tariffs.
This dramatic trade saga, along with other key moments like the historic fallout between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy after an intense exchange in the White House, clearly shows that the “free world” has turned inwards on itself. Once defined by multilateralism and cooperation, the global order is seeing its once-liberal leaders adopt a “country first” ideology that harkens back to a time before economic globalization. These events have indicated that the U.S. is now willing to disrupt long-standing global norms and damage relations with key international partners to assert itself and its interests on the world stage, however narrowly defined.
However, this swelling revisionist political movement has grave implications beyond the borders of the nation in which it is taking place. The international community and the rules that undergird its behavior has been shaped in large part by America, which is now reneging on its end of the bargain. This disruption of the norms that have guided global affairs for decades could spell big trouble for the rest of the world, especially during a time when an Axis of Upheaval seeks to upset the balance of power, the rapid development of revolutionary technologies like Artificial Intelligence poses serious threats to the ways of life we have grown accustomed to, and human activities continue to warm the Earth at an alarming pace. Though protectionism and populism have been motivated by real structural issues that require reform, the U.S. must look to more productive means of reform rather than an all-out assault on the status quo.
How Did We Get Here?
The U.S. has long been regarded as the leading architect of the modern, postwar world. Progressive, internationalist leaders in the last century created institutions and implemented policies that have created a global order based around liberal ideals, free trade, and market-oriented capitalism in reaction to the decades of protectionism and isolationism that drove wedges between nations in the lead-up to the Second World War. The ratification of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), followed by the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) helped to usher in an age of deep global economic integration. Businesses gained unprecedented access to markets abroad. Goods and capital poured across borders at a pace and efficiency once unimaginable. Massive amounts of wealth were both generated and transferred between a record number of hands around the world. The American economy grew and the gains were widely distributed between corporate leaders and consumers alike.
However, this deep and expansive integration of the global economy led to the hollowing out of the American industrial base, leading to real economic pain for millions of Americans. Many lost their jobs and felt their pockets pinched as their industries faced fierce competition from cheap imports abroad, which created a yawning chasm between U.S. elites and the working class that has fundamentally changed the tenor of American politics.
For instance, the Democratic Party was once the party of U.S. President Bill Clinton and free trade. But the Joe Biden Administration, a Democratic administration, kept many of the first-term Trump tariffs in place and even instated new ones. It also signed into law large pieces of industrial policy like the Inflation Reduction Act that attempted to incentivize the growth of domestic industries and position them for global leadership. Evidently, protectionism has become a point of bipartisan consensus, marking a radical departure from the market-oriented philosophies that defined the Party in the past.
Now, populist leaders like Trump are attempting to dismantle the liberal economic regime that was created and entrenched over many decades to capitalize on the discontent of those disaffected communities that were hurt by this process of liberalization. He and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base have touted economic protectionism as the panacea for the woes that ail the working class, and propped up isolationism as the foreign policy that will restore America’s standing in the world.
For example, on the campaign trail leading up to the 2024 Presidential Election, Trump repeatedly said that “‘tariff’ is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Driven by a conviction that bilateral trade deficits with and “unfair” tariff treatments by other countries is a leading cause of America’s declining status in the world, Trump has developed a dogmatic obsession with erecting steep trading barriers in the name of advancing American interests as the defining pillar of his economic policy. His April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariffs were rationalized as necessary measures to reshore manufacturing and bring jobs back home to America and to restore “fair” trade.
Beyond his grievances with the global trading order, Trump has also spurned the cultural, economic, and defense ties that the U.S. has with its historic allies like the European Union, Canada, and Mexico, as he is animated by a worldview that sees U.S. partners as remorseless freeriders and international institutions as sinister anti-American forums. He has withdrawn the U.S. from the World Health Organization, citing the organization’s “mishandling” of the COVID-19 Pandemic. He has also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accords, yet again stalling crucial progress on the urgent climate issue.
The administration has also rejected international partnerships on the basis of common ideology and historical alignment, instead preferring to deal with friend and foe alike with the same transactional approach that is devoid of any coherent ideology. In fact, Trump has labeled Zelenskyy as a “dictator” while praising Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “genius.”
Why Protectionism and Populism Don’t Work
Trump’s vision of the world is corrosive not only to the global order, but to America’s own interests. On the economic front, Trump and his team have already inflicted massive damage. His “Liberation Day” tariffs came at a time when the American economy was beginning to show strength. Though only time will tell if Trump’s vision of America’s manufacturing renaissance will materialize, recent developments have foretold a grave economic outcome; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the tariffs have the potential to cause an economic recession.In fact, the S&P 500 fell more than 10% within two days of the tariff announcement, marking the worst market downturn since COVID.
What’s more, the choice to use tariffs instead of other trade policy tools is illogical as they are counterproductive to the administration’s agenda. The twin goals of raising revenue and re-industrialization that the administration has laid out seem to be at odds; if America does increase its manufacturing production and export volumes as a result of the tariffs, then it will import less goods from around the world, which means that revenue from the tariffs will be undercut. If America derives its power from the strength of its economy, then it cannot lead in the world if it continues to shoot itself in the foot with incoherent trade policies that shrink growth and create volatility.
Not only will the imposition of these tariffs create economic pain in the U.S. and around the world, a disruption of the global trading regime of this magnitude will damage the credibility of international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the rules-based system that was painstakingly constructed over many decades. As Director General of the WTO Ngozi Okjonjo-Iweala remarked at a conference, institutions like the WTO still matter today.
Studies have shown that global integration of trade can contribute to peace. The erosion of the rule of law in trade will make it nearly impossible for countries to litigate unfair trading practices and incentivize ad-hoc, bilateral agreements that will splinter the world into trading blocs defined by an alignment in ideology. This will dissolve the economic links that bind countries together and create a more dangerous world where states wishing to incite violent conflict are not constrained by economic concerns.
Additionally, rejecting international alliances weakens America’s authority. In a historic speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance denounced the historic transatlantic relationship that has defined the West since World War II. Speaking to a crowd of European policy elites, Vance warned that “If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you.” With these few incisive words spoken in a few short minutes, every presumption of unwavering alliance between the U.S. and Europe that leaders across the Atlantic had held was smashed into pieces.
Burning bridges with friends around the world leaves America little room to maneuver in case of bad times. Recall that NATO’s Article 5 was the main deterrent against Soviet aggression during the Cold War; in the face of rising geopolitical competition, strategic blocs are necessary to prevent violent conflict and the outbreak of war. Signaling that America no longer stands unconditionally with its friends and partners emboldens the rest of the world to test the limits of what they can get away with without drawing the ire of the U.S.
This leads to might-makes-right politics that can embolden expansionist powers like China and Russia to act on their impulses, possibly inciting incursions across the Taiwan Strait and further aggression in Eastern Europe.
Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February, 2025
Credit: Flickr
However, Trump has since delayed his tariffs after seeing the early signs of economic meltdown, which helped markets rebound. This may be a sign that Trump is more constrained by the workings of the market and popular opinion than analysts predicted. But it may be a sign of more volatility to come. Time will tell whether Trump truly intends to press ahead with his tariffs and efforts to disengage from the world, or whether he is simply testing the waters to see what he can get away with.
How China and an “Axis of Upheaval” are Taking Advantage
At the same time that America has been recasting its role in the world as an erratic bully rather than a benevolent hegemon, a ragtag group of revanchist powers have seized the opportunity to shake up the global order. The quartet of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran has been dubbed by national security experts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor of the Center for a New American Security as the “Axis of Upheaval,” and they describe it as “a collection of dissatisfied states converging on a shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system.” The four states have felt that the U.S.-led order has been oppressive to their interests, and thus are working more closely with each other than ever before to displace the United States as the top dog in the international hierarchy.
Ties between the countries have been deepening for some time now, but the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has accelerated their cooperation. Though it has denied such claims, China has been found on multiple occasions to be supplying the Russian war machine with critical technologies and weapons. According to the U.S., Russia has also deployed Iranian drones against Ukraine. North Korea, meanwhile, has been sending ballistic missiles to Russia. These efforts have helped sustain Russian forces and undermined Western attempts to choke off Moscow from the rest of the world.
China, with its ambitions to remake the world order, is already a behemoth of a challenge to deal with. Chinese Premier Xi Jinping famously remarked that the world was undergoing “great changes unseen in a century.” This comment has been interpreted to mean that China perceives America to be in decline, and that now is the time for it to seize the opportunity to remake the world order. Driven by this view, China has been making moves to do so. As outlined in a report published by the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State, The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been co-opting countries around the world economically and building up its military at home to grow its role in the world. Through famous initiatives like the Belt and Road, China seeks to and is already establishing a sphere of influence in the Eastern Hemisphere. Now consider the PRC’s undeniable strength drawn from the size of its economy and its leadership in key sectors such as sustainable energy, and you have an incredibly formidable, once-in-a-generation strategic adversary.
Then there’s Russia, an expansionist power hell-bent on recapturing the lost glory of its imperial days. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly justified his invasion of Ukraine on the grounds that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” bound together by history. This naked aggression from Moscow carries with it broader implications; in violating international law and norms, Russia is telling the world that it no longer wants to take the backseat in global affairs. It wishes to assert itself, even if it means enduring isolation from the world and severe economic pain from harsh sanctions. Much like China, Russia resents the current international order. But unlike China, Russia does not have the economic or technological might to displace the U.S. as the global hegemon. However, Russia’s nationalist imperialism ideology, combined with its actions in Ukraine, make it a significant geopolitical threat.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin shaking hands
Credit: China.org
And don’t forget about Iran. A powerful force in the Middle East, Iran has exerted its influence in the region through its support of the now-ousted Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza. This “Axis of Resistance” that Iran has strung together not only disrupts affairs in the region, but also uses its power to affect global dynamics more broadly by drawing larger powers like Saudi Arabia and the U.S. into the fold. But with the country now finding itself in an economic crisis, its power may be waning in the coming years, unless it finds some sort of relief through the ongoing talks with the U.S. that could yield the lifting of some sanctions.
Last but not least is North Korea. Domestically, the country maintains one of the most repressive political regimes in the world. Internationally, North Korea employs strategies of coercion and intimidation to assert itself to its neighbors and extract concessions. Despite its moniker as the “Hermit Kingdom,” North Korea sees itself as a proud nation that stands strong on the world stage. It wishes to gain global recognition as a legitimate nuclear power, despite pushback from the West and even its ally, China. Juche, the state-sponsored political philosophy that is fed to North Korean citizens by their government, drives much of these impulses.
The growing alignment of these powers—three with nuclear arsenals and one on the brink of nuclearization—presents a unique threat to America, its interests, and its role in the world; a threat that America cannot afford to take on in a moment filled with unprecedented global challenges.
Implications on Global Challenges
Growing tensions between belligerent superpowers coinciding with a retreating America will be detrimental to progress on the most pressing issues of the day. At a time when some collective challenges we have been facing have come to a head, there is little room left for bickering and an urgent need for principled leadership and swift action.
Scientists have long warned that the effects of climate change will be perilous, from sea-level rise and stronger hurricanes to increased wildfire risk and changes in rainfall patterns. In 2024, we saw many of these disasters play out in front of us; the U.S. alone experienced 27 cases of climate events that reached or exceeded losses of $1 billion. In early 2025, the Palisades Wildfires in Southern California ravaged more than $250 billion worth of property. And this is just the beginning; studies have predicted that there is a 50% chance humanity breaches the 2 degrees Celsius threshold set by the Paris Agreement by 2050, even if all emissions targets are met. The urgency of the climate crisis cannot be emphasized enough—America cannot afford to retreat now. It must position itself as a leader in the climate fight and take bold action now by collaborating with other countries to forge substantive agreements and develop accountability frameworks to ensure the objectives of those agreements are met.
Aside from the climate problem, the rapid development of AI stands to become one of the most disruptive events in human history. The potential of it to revolutionize every facet of human life is immense. According to a report published by McKinsey in 2023, AI can add $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy. It can help humanity develop cures to novel diseases, unlock productivity gains for workers across the board, and make forecasting natural disasters more efficient, and more. But AI also has a dark side; a United Nations report finds that high-income countries will disproportionately benefit from the gains from AI compared to low and middle-income countries. This “AI Divide,” caused by discrepancies in digital infrastructure, regulatory regimes, access to quality data, and technical capabilities can entrench inequalities among and within societies. Strong global governance is needed to design policies that ensure AI’s development is inclusive, and America needs to be at the forefront of this push. Although the Trump Administration has issued an Executive Order that calls for American leadership in the development of AI technologies, more work needs to be done to establish a global regulatory regime that promotes even growth among all nations of the world rather than focusing on simply maintaining a competitive advantage.
The AI disparity between the Global North and Global South, Demonstrated by the Impact of Exposure to Automation
Credit: UN
How to Move Forward
So where does this all leave us? Though the Trump Administration’s worldview and policies are deeply flawed and borderline fantastical, the problems they are trying to address are very real. It’s true that globalization caused huge economic pain for millions of Americans. It’s true that multilateral institutions have become increasingly ineffective. And it’s certainly true that international alliances have stretched America thin. But these are not problems that can be solved by retreating from and blocking out the rest of the world. America needs to meet the moment with vigor and engage with its friends, allies, and partners.
Admittedly, there are no easy solutions to any of these issues. But a good place to start, at least on the trade front, is to reconsider the outlandish tariffs that are set to be imposed in the coming months. Instead of slapping a blanket tariff on all imports, the Administration should consider targeting the tariffs at specific products and industries that are strategically vital to national interests, like semiconductors and solar panels, as well as those that have faced the brunt of import competition like steel and furniture.
Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel—the Administration has signaled it wishes to cut deals with India, China, and the UK. But it’s anybody’s guess if any of these efforts will yield any results, or if the rollercoaster ride of a presidency that we’ve experienced so far will continue to twist and turn and bring with it the inevitable collapse of the liberal international order.